Impact of Bin Laden’s Death in South Asia

Iraqis in Baghdad watch a news broadcast on Arabic satellite news channel Al-Arabiya showing an image which has been circulating on the internet and allegedly show the body of Al-Qaeda mastermind Osama bin Ladan. Sabah Arar /AFP - Getty Images

by Rahul K. Bhonsle

(May 02, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) The American forces fighting the global war on terror have achieved the most significant counter terror success in a decade, targeting and eliminating Osama Bin Laden in his lair in Abottabad close to Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad. The North Western region of the Sub Continent, spanning Afghanistan and Pakistan has been long suspected to be harbouring Bin laden and his coterie including his number two Ayman al Zawahiri. While they may have had limited contact with the world after 9/11 except for videos streaming at regular intervals, the influence of Bin Laden on the violent Islamic extremist movement has been seminal. He has been the symbol of Salafi radicalism spread across the World and his dreams of a Caliphate has inspired many from Bali to London and New York resulting in the death of thousands.

The American pursuit of Bin Laden is truly extraordinary and is a new chapter in counter terrorism history. The credit must go to President Barack Obama as the White House release indicates, the President chaired no fewer than five National Security Council meetings from the middle of March -- March 14th, March 29th, April 12th, April 19th, and April 28th before giving the final order for the operation on April 29th.

This was a no doubt a high risk operation, memories of the one launched in Iran by President Jimmy Carter in the same month April in 1980 and had led to a humiliating failure with Carter losing the Presidential elections may have haunted Obama. He faces his own test in November 2012. However given that the nature of operation was different and American Special Forces combat capability has considerably increased, the assurance of success was higher. This classic operation will be studied many times over by analysts and historians alike

What is likely to be the impact of elimination of Osama from the terrorist landscape? Firstly the Al Qaeda movement has lost its inspirational head, while the group and subsidiaries will continue to carry out terrorist attacks particularly in West Asia and North Africa, the larger traction for establishing a Caliphate has lost sting with impact felt in the long term. Secondly terrorism and terrorist attacks will continue as there are other dimensions to this phenomenon which has assumed hydra headed proportions. Thirdly, terrorism in Af Pak will not be impacted given that the two main groupings Taliban in Afghanistan and Tehreek e Taliban in Pakistan are not dependent on the al Qaeda be it for support, sustenance or ideology. Fourthly Lashkar E Taiyyaba which has India as the main target is unlikely to shift track, thus New Delhi will have to remain vigilant. Finally the al Qaeda particularly Ayman Zawahiri will order a retaliatory attack on America not just the main land but also assets across the World at large.

How would it impact Pakistan’s take on terrorism? Here again there is unlikely to be a shift in Pakistani policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds, in fact the Army and the ISI may take this as a humiliation and continue to remain uncooperative with the United States. So Bin Laden is gone but the world and the region will not be a safe place, not at least immediately. We have a long fight ahead of us and cannot let down our guard, for unlike the death of Hitler at the end of the Second World Way after his military had been defeated Bin Laden's forces are still in being and will carry on the biddings of their former master, eternal vigilance will therefore continue to be the price of liberty.