LISBON — As debt-plagued Greece struggles to meet Europe’s strict terms for receiving its next round of bailout money, the lesson of Portugal might bear watching. Unlike Greece, Portugal is a debtor nation that has done everything that the European Union and the International Monetary Fund have asked it to, in exchange for the 78 billion euro (about $103 billion) bailout Lisbon received last May.
And yet, by the broadest measure of a country’s ability to repay its debts, Portugal is going deeper into the hole.
The ratio of Portugal’s debt to its overall economy, or gross domestic product, was 107 percent when it received the bailout. But the ratio has grown since then, and by next year is expected to reach 118 percent.
That’s not necessarily because Portugal’s overall debt is growing, but because its economy is shrinking. And economists say the same vicious circle could be taking hold elsewhere in Europe.
Two other closely watched countries on the debt list, Spain and Italy, also have rising debt-to-G.D.P. ratios — even though they, like Portugal, have adopted the budget-slashing and tax-raising measures that the European officials and the I.M.F. continue to prescribe.
And on Tuesday, new figures showed that the Greek economy shrank even more than expected last year, as Greece struggles under ever heavier austerity demands by its European lenders.
Without growth, reducing debt levels becomes nearly impossible. It is akin to trying to pay down a large credit card balance after taking a pay cut. You can slash expenses, but with lower earnings it is hard to set aside money to pay off debt.
Vitor Gaspar, the Portuguese finance minister who came to power as part of a new government last summer, is highly regarded by European economic and finance officials. He has reduced the government’s budget deficit by more than one-third so far, through tough measures that include cuts in spending and wages, pension rollbacks and tax increases.
But many economists say those moves are also a reason Portugal’s economy shrank by 1.5 percent in 2011 and is expected to contract by 3 percent this year.
“Portugal’s debt is just not sustainable,” said David Bencek, an analyst at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a research organization in Germany. “The real economy does not have the structure to grow in the future and thus will not be able to pay back its debt in the long run.” The Portuguese public has so far has generally gone along with the government’s policies without the violent demonstrations that have rocked Greece, but it is starting to lose patience.
On Saturday, more than 100,000 people assembled peacefully in Lisbon’s sprawling Palace Square to rally against the austerity measures and the nation’s 13 percent unemployment, while chanting “I.M.F. doesn’t call the shots here!” The head of Portugal’s largest labor union vowed to hold additional protest rallies around the country.
The I.M.F., for its part, predicts that Portugal will eventually grow enough to cut its debt to a manageable level. But even the I.M.F. warns in its recent economic review that if growth were to disappoint, Portugal’s debt “would not be sustainable.”
The finance minister, Mr. Gaspar, an economist who is a former research director at the European Central Bank and a disciple of the bank’s austerity-focused philosophy, insists that his country’s debt is manageable. And he has no plans to ease up. This year he intends to slash government pension payments by 1.2 billion euros (close to $1.6 billion) and cut the bonus payouts that public sector workers in this country have long earned.
In discussing his record, Mr. Gaspar prefers to focus on the effect his efforts have had on Portugal’s budget deficit — the difference between what it spends and what it takes in — which has fallen to 5.6 percent last year, from 9.1 percent in 2010. For this year, Mr. Gaspar forecasts a decline to 4.5 percent.
“We have delivered, and our adjustment program stands out in the euro area,” he said during an interview on Friday in the ornate surroundings of the finance ministry here.
Once Portugal’s budget reforms take hold, Mr. Gaspar predicts, the country’s economy will grow by more than 2 percent from 2014 on, and the debt will fall accordingly.
Mr. Gaspar has won plaudits from Europe’s leadership and the I.M.F., which are eager to champion an exemplar of economic revamping in contrast to Greece’s unspooling disaster. In fact, Portugal is deemed such a model of reform that the Europe Union and I.M.F. are widely expected to come up with more money for Portugal next year if necessary — as was suggested in an overheard exchange between Mr. Gaspar and the German finance minister at a meeting last week in Brussels.
And yet, by the broadest measure of a country’s ability to repay its debts, Portugal is going deeper into the hole.
The ratio of Portugal’s debt to its overall economy, or gross domestic product, was 107 percent when it received the bailout. But the ratio has grown since then, and by next year is expected to reach 118 percent.
That’s not necessarily because Portugal’s overall debt is growing, but because its economy is shrinking. And economists say the same vicious circle could be taking hold elsewhere in Europe.
Two other closely watched countries on the debt list, Spain and Italy, also have rising debt-to-G.D.P. ratios — even though they, like Portugal, have adopted the budget-slashing and tax-raising measures that the European officials and the I.M.F. continue to prescribe.
And on Tuesday, new figures showed that the Greek economy shrank even more than expected last year, as Greece struggles under ever heavier austerity demands by its European lenders.
Without growth, reducing debt levels becomes nearly impossible. It is akin to trying to pay down a large credit card balance after taking a pay cut. You can slash expenses, but with lower earnings it is hard to set aside money to pay off debt.
Vitor Gaspar, the Portuguese finance minister who came to power as part of a new government last summer, is highly regarded by European economic and finance officials. He has reduced the government’s budget deficit by more than one-third so far, through tough measures that include cuts in spending and wages, pension rollbacks and tax increases.
But many economists say those moves are also a reason Portugal’s economy shrank by 1.5 percent in 2011 and is expected to contract by 3 percent this year.
“Portugal’s debt is just not sustainable,” said David Bencek, an analyst at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a research organization in Germany. “The real economy does not have the structure to grow in the future and thus will not be able to pay back its debt in the long run.” The Portuguese public has so far has generally gone along with the government’s policies without the violent demonstrations that have rocked Greece, but it is starting to lose patience.
On Saturday, more than 100,000 people assembled peacefully in Lisbon’s sprawling Palace Square to rally against the austerity measures and the nation’s 13 percent unemployment, while chanting “I.M.F. doesn’t call the shots here!” The head of Portugal’s largest labor union vowed to hold additional protest rallies around the country.
The I.M.F., for its part, predicts that Portugal will eventually grow enough to cut its debt to a manageable level. But even the I.M.F. warns in its recent economic review that if growth were to disappoint, Portugal’s debt “would not be sustainable.”
The finance minister, Mr. Gaspar, an economist who is a former research director at the European Central Bank and a disciple of the bank’s austerity-focused philosophy, insists that his country’s debt is manageable. And he has no plans to ease up. This year he intends to slash government pension payments by 1.2 billion euros (close to $1.6 billion) and cut the bonus payouts that public sector workers in this country have long earned.
In discussing his record, Mr. Gaspar prefers to focus on the effect his efforts have had on Portugal’s budget deficit — the difference between what it spends and what it takes in — which has fallen to 5.6 percent last year, from 9.1 percent in 2010. For this year, Mr. Gaspar forecasts a decline to 4.5 percent.
“We have delivered, and our adjustment program stands out in the euro area,” he said during an interview on Friday in the ornate surroundings of the finance ministry here.
Once Portugal’s budget reforms take hold, Mr. Gaspar predicts, the country’s economy will grow by more than 2 percent from 2014 on, and the debt will fall accordingly.
Mr. Gaspar has won plaudits from Europe’s leadership and the I.M.F., which are eager to champion an exemplar of economic revamping in contrast to Greece’s unspooling disaster. In fact, Portugal is deemed such a model of reform that the Europe Union and I.M.F. are widely expected to come up with more money for Portugal next year if necessary — as was suggested in an overheard exchange between Mr. Gaspar and the German finance minister at a meeting last week in Brussels.
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